浅谈技术分析 by John Lee

技术分析是以股价来决定公司的价值，其实如果一间好的公司，股价已经显示出，好的公司，股价不好，只是暂时没有人注意，可是技术分析对这些公司的基本分析没有兴趣。

我是交易员，我只是对能够涨的股票有兴趣(在马来西亚而已，如果在美国，无论涨和跌都能赚钱)。

如果我的目标是每年完成20宗交易，而我的成功率只有50%，那么我是赚多少钱呢？

还没有开始之前，我先说我的交易方式，每次不会用超过30%的总资金，止损在8%，在有30%的盈利就套利了。

20次，10次赚，10次亏。

赚

10 X 30% X 30% = 90%

亏

10 X 30% X 8% = 24%

那么总盈利是 66%

以20K的资金开始，几年后才能致富呢？只需要8年就可以成为百万富翁了。

这种算法我之前都有提了很多次，其实我的交易系统是很简单，找能够涨的股票，30-50%的盈利，情况不对就卖，每次只做30%总资金的投资(避免找到能涨的股又没有钱买的情况)这和100%投资有分别。

如果你的选股能力能够提高到60%的话，那么成绩又会怎样呢？

20次，12次赚，8次亏

赚

12 X 30% X 30% = 108%

亏

8 X 30% X 8% = 19.2%

总盈利 = 108% - 19.2% = 88.8%

那么以20K的资金开始，几年后能赚100万呢？答案是6年半就可以了。

38 Steps To Be A Successful Trader by Anonymous

1. We accumulate information--buying books, going to seminars and researching.
2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.
3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more
knowledge or information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated'
knowledge.
7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence.
Fear starts setting in.
8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.
9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
10. We switch commodities again.
11. We search for more information.
12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress.
13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.
14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.

Most People Will Give up at this Point as They Realize Work Is
Involved.

15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a 'real'
methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that
something is missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our
methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our
trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some
success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more
proficient with our rules.
21. We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of
successful trading.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we
understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our
methodology and our rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rips and our results are still erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still
hesitating in executing our rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don't follow them.
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of
discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading
becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
37. We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
38. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of.

Why Speculator Can Make Spectacular Returns

If you want to be a successful trader, you need to know why you can rip money off the market. Of course, you can still make a substantial returns even without that knowledge, but knowing that will make you a better trader and lead a more meaningful ife.

A lot of people never take the effort of knowing why they can make money from the market. Investors believe that they are entitled to the profits and losses of the company that they have invested. As shareholders, they believe that they make money when the company make a profit. On the other hands, traders thought that just by making the right buy and sell and at the right time, they can make money.

Is that simply so? The answer is NO!

To make money in our current capitalist society, you need to provide either valuable products or services to the consumers. What kind of economic services do these people provide to the consumers by investing in the right stocks and guessing right? If that what your thinking is, then investing or trading is like gambling, placing the right bet. Your returns will be like on the gambling table. Luck will play a major role.

To make money in the market, you need to know what kind of economic services you are providing to the society. The main reason why speculator or trader can make spectacular money is because they are providing an valuable service of transferring and handling risk that people want to get rid of. As for investor, you make money when you invest in company that ARE GOING (NOT CURRENTLY) to provide MORE valuable products or services to the consumers. You do not make money just simply when the
company are currently doing what they are doing. It is the same reason, why earning sometimes does not relate to its share prices.

[Note: I hope you understand my statement for the part of investor, anyway, to keep it short, it more difficult to make money as an investor because, first thing first, it difficult to do prediction. Secondly, how confident are you that you going to predict correctly for say the next 30 years? Warren Buffet did very well because he understand which company will continue to give added value to their consumers. But can you do what he did?]

As a trader, you are in the business of managing risk. You buy from people who do not want to handle that risk anymore. You sell if the risk is too high for you. You transfer the risk to others who are more willing to handle it, so as to say. You are able to make money because you provide an invaluable service of transferring and handling risk that people want to get rid of. In addition, you provide another valuable service of providing liquidity to the market. Without traders, market could not function. And without the market, young promising company will have difficulty in raising funds to expand. Ultimately, consumers suffers due to the lack of products and services that these small companies fail to provide without the expansion.

Since your principle business activity is to manage risk, how much money you make is dependent on how well you manage your risk. Do not lose the forest for the tree! You do not make money by making the right buy or sell! That not the economic reason why you make money. How many times have you observed that some people still lose money in the market when they are right most of the time. Just one huge losses can wipe all their profit out. If you cannot manage risk well, the market will take your money away and kick you out. The market will reward those traders that can manage risk well, so that they can continue to provide their useful service of risk handling to others.

Now that we know why we can make money from market, that is, risk management. But what are the tools available that can manage your risk in trading?

Fundamental analysis?
Go ahead if you think that the way and have the time and faith to try it out!

Technical analysis?
Go ahead if you think that the way and have the time and faith to try it out!

Let the truth be told!

To manage your risk, you just need to limit your loss per trade! What tools do you need to limit your loss per trade? It your DETERMINED WILL and your INTENTION to do so!

How much time and hard work does it need to do that?

If you can manage your risk within half hour per week using your DETERMINED WILL and INTENTION with simple strategy, so be it. The market will be perfectly alright with it. Some business need time and hard work to do well, but definitely not risk management for trader. Why chose a more difficult way of doing things when there are more simple and elegant one? My guess is that many people want to use the hard ways to satisfy their ego. To show off their intelligence to their friends or peers that they can make money using the hard ways where many others have failed!

Larry Livingstone

William J. O'Neil Insights and Wisdom

"There are only two things you can really do when a new bear market begins: sell and get out or go short."

"Learn to always sell stocks quickly when you have a small loss rather than waiting and hoping they'll come back."

"Your objective is to agree 100% with what is actually happening in the market rather than try to tell it what you think it ought to be doing. The market doesn't care who you are or what you think, hope, or want."

"Don't chase extended stocks. Chasing stocks, like crime, doesn't pay."

"It doesn't pay to argue with the market. Experience teaches that fighting the market can be a very expensive lesson."

"Never operate from a position of fear. If your stocks are keeping you up at night, sell to the sleeping point."

"When a stock breaks [down], many people become psychologically frozen. They decide they'll wait for the stock to rally back so they can sell it where they should have sold it in the first place. But a tiny campfire not extinguished can develop into a devastating forest fire."

"What you must realize is that there are no 'good' or 'safe' stocks. In a way, all stocks are bad - that is, unless they go up. The only way your selections should be thought of as good stocks is after they prove themselves by going up in price after you buy them - they must produce results!"

Market Wizards Wisdom

I advise you to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point. Another thing is that if a position doesn't feel right as soon as you put it on, don't be embarrassed to change your mind and get right out.
-Michael Marcus

Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he's not going to take a patient's temperature.
-Bruce Kovner

The most important rule of investing is to play great defense, not great offense. Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. Always question yourself and your ability. Don't ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead. Always maintain your sense of confidence, but keep it in check.
-Paul Tudor Jones

You need discipline, patience, and courage. You must have a willingness to lose, but a strong desire to win.
-Gary Biefeldt

Investing is like poker. You should only play the good hands, and drop out of the poor hands, forfeiting the ante.
-Gary Biefeldt

Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price. I call them "funny-mentals".
-Ed Seykota

I tend to cut bad trades as soon as possible, forget them, and then move on to new opportunities. The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
-Ed Seykota

If you diversify, control your risk, and go with the trend, it just has to work.
-Larry Hite

My Marine training helps in investing. They teach you never to freeze when you are under attack.
-Marty Schwartz

Be aware of change. Buy change. You should be willing to buy or sell anything.
-James B. Rogers, Jr.

The biggest mistake I made was having a specific target of what I wanted out of an investment. The target should be determined by market analysis, not by the amount of money you want to make.
-Mark Weinstein

Perform Poorly?

"I have consistently heard about the 'death of trend-following' during every period of poor performance. Every one. Fortunately, I did enough research to allow me to relax and maintain a long-term perspective."

"I've been doing this for 20 years, and every time there's a change in the market, they say I should change my ways. But every time there's a period when we don't do well, it's followed by one in which we do extraordinarily well."

John W. Henry

John W. Henry's Philosophy

John W. Henry outlined many moons ago the keys of successful trading:

"It's not for me to ask why the price is going up or down but rather to pay attention to what is actually happening. And over time, that gives us a big advantage."

"I don't believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors. Prices, not investors, predict the future."

"...when I was designing what turned out to be a trend following system...[that] approach - a mechanical and mathematical system - has not really changed at all. Yet the system continues to be successful today, even though there has been virtually no change to it over the last 18 years."